Match dossier

Rio Ave vs Nacional Predictions

Portugal · Primeira Liga · Sun, 11 Oct 2026 · 15:30 · Prediction, H2H, stats & betting tips

Rio Ave

16th in table · 7 pts

DLWLL

Sun, 11 Oct 202615:30

3 : 2

Full timeTip: 1X · 1.35

Nacional

15th in table · 7 pts

LLLWL

Pre-match win probability

41.8%Rio Ave28%Draw30.2%Nacional

Our prediction

1X · Rio Ave

Rio Ave vs Nacional listed tip from the board.

Odds1.35
Confidence74.07%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Rio Ave 41.8%
  • Draw 28%
  • Nacional 30.2%

Board tips

Betting Tips

  • Double Chance1XOdds 1.3574%Won
  • corners ouOver 6.5Odds 3.0233%Lost
  • Win Either Half1Odds 1.6760%Won

Season statistics

Primeira Liga · 9 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

Rio AveNacional
Goals scored (avg)
0.80.7
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
2.21.7
Wins
22
Played
1010

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Rio Ave2W 1D 6L in last 9
  • 1 NovAcademico Viseu2 – 1Rio AveL
  • 25 OctRio Ave0 – 4FamalicaoL
  • 17 OctLouletano0 – 1Rio AveW
  • 19 SeptAlverca1 – 0Rio AveL
  • 14 SeptRio Ave3 – 3EstrelaD
  • 6 SeptSanta Clara4 – 0Rio AveL
  • 28 AugRio Ave0 – 4Sporting CPL
  • 22 AugEstoril0 – 2Rio AveW
  • 15 AugRio Ave0 – 2FC PortoL
Nacional2W 0D 7L in last 9
  • 1 NovArouca1 – 0NacionalL
  • 25 OctNacional1 – 0SC BragaW
  • 17 OctSanjoanense1 – 0NacionalL
  • 19 SeptNacional0 – 4FamalicaoL
  • 12 SeptNacional1 – 3AlvercaL
  • 5 SeptSporting CP2 – 0NacionalL
  • 30 AugNacional2 – 3EstrelaL
  • 23 AugVitória SC1 – 0NacionalL
  • 16 AugNacional2 – 0EstorilW
H2H
Head to headRio Ave 3W · 4D · Nacional 2W · 2.6 goals a game
  • 25 JanNacional4 – 0Rio Ave
  • 17 AugRio Ave1 – 1Nacional
  • 10 MayNacional3 – 3Rio Ave
  • 29 DecRio Ave2 – 1Nacional
  • 31 JulRio Ave1 – 1Nacional
  • 10 AprNacional2 – 0Rio Ave
  • 28 NovRio Ave1 – 0Nacional
  • 19 MayNacional1 – 2Rio Ave
  • 5 FebRio Ave0 – 0Nacional

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

No over/under prices stored.

Match result

Rio Ave2.32
Draw3.46
Nacional3.21

No BTTS prices stored.

No double chance prices stored.

Rio Ave

Chance41.8%
Odds2.32

Draw

Chance28%
Odds3.46

Nacional

Chance30.2%
Odds3.21

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: 1X at 1.35

Rio AveNacional
Recent form54%46%
Attack53%47%
Defence38%62%
Goals model53%47%
Head-to-head56%44%
Overall58%42%

Trends

Trend · Primeira Liga

Rio Ave scored 0.8 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Primeira Liga

Rio Ave conceded 2.2 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Primeira Liga

Failed to score in 5 of those 9.

Trend · Primeira Liga

Kept a clean sheet in 2 of those 9.

Rio Ave vs Nacional: prediction & preview

Portugal · Primeira Liga · Sun, 11 Oct 2026

Rio Ave meet Nacional in the Portugal, Primeira Liga on 11 October 2026 at 15:30 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 3–2.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Rio Ave at 2.32. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 41.8% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Rio Ave vs Nacional FAQs

4 questions

What time is the Rio Ave vs Nacional match?

Kickoff is 15:30 on 11 October 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

What are the safest picks for Rio Ave vs Nacional?

Rio Ave is the safest-priced 1X2 pick at 2.32. The margin-adjusted share is about 41.8%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over and under 2.5 prices are not stored for this match.

Do both teams score on this match?

A both-teams-to-score price is not stored for this match.