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Arouca vs Estrela Predictions

Portugal · Primeira Liga · Sun, 11 Oct 2026 · 20:30 · Prediction, H2H, stats & betting tips

Portugal · Primeira LigaSun, 11 Oct 2026

Arouca

5th in table · 20 pts

LDWWW

Sun, 11 Oct 202620:30

1 : 0

Full timeTip: 1X · 1.31

Estrela

12th in table · 10 pts

DLWLL

Pre-match win probability

45.3%Arouca26.8%Draw27.9%Estrela

Our prediction

1X · Arouca

Arouca vs Estrela listed tip from the board.

Odds1.31
Confidence76.34%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Arouca 45.3%
  • Draw 26.8%
  • Estrela 27.9%

Board tips

Betting Tips

  • Double Chance1XOdds 1.3176%Won
  • Both Team To ScoreGGOdds 1.6959%Lost
  • Over 1.5 GoalsOver 1.5Odds 1.2282%Lost
  • 0.5 Goals HTOver 0.5Odds 1.3276%Won
  • Win Either Half1Odds 1.5365%Won
  • corners ouOver 6.5Odds 3.0033%Lost

Season statistics

Primeira Liga · 9 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

AroucaEstrela
Goals scored (avg)
1.71.7
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
1.11.9
Wins
62
Played
1010

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Arouca5W 2D 2L in last 9
  • 1 NovArouca1 – 0NacionalW
  • 24 OctAlverca0 – 1AroucaW
  • 18 OctCF Os Belenenses3 – 4AroucaW
  • 19 SeptSporting CP2 – 2AroucaD
  • 13 SeptArouca1 – 2Santa ClaraL
  • 7 SeptEstoril0 – 0AroucaD
  • 29 AugArouca2 – 1MaritimoW
  • 23 AugFC Porto2 – 0AroucaL
  • 16 AugArouca4 – 0MoreirenseW
Estrela3W 3D 3L in last 9
  • 31 OctMoreirense2 – 1EstrelaL
  • 24 OctEstrela0 – 2Casa PiaL
  • 17 OctFazendense1 – 2EstrelaW
  • 20 SeptEstrela0 – 2Academico ViseuL
  • 14 SeptRio Ave3 – 3EstrelaD
  • 10 SeptEstrela2 – 1SC BragaW
  • 5 SeptEstrela2 – 2FamalicaoD
  • 30 AugNacional2 – 3EstrelaW
  • 15 AugAlverca2 – 2EstrelaD
H2H
Head to headArouca 3W · 1D · Estrela 2W · 2.3 goals a game
  • 19 AprArouca1 – 0Estrela
  • 7 DecEstrela3 – 1Arouca
  • 19 AprArouca1 – 0Estrela
  • 9 DecEstrela2 – 1Arouca
  • 5 MayArouca0 – 0Estrela
  • 28 DecEstrela1 – 4Arouca

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

No over/under prices stored.

Match result

Arouca2.14
Draw3.62
Estrela3.48

No BTTS prices stored.

No double chance prices stored.

Arouca

Chance45.3%
Odds2.14

Draw

Chance26.8%
Odds3.62

Estrela

Chance27.9%
Odds3.48

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: 1X at 1.31

AroucaEstrela
Recent form59%41%
Attack50%50%
Defence63%37%
Goals model50%50%
Head-to-head58%42%
Overall62%38%

Trends

Trend · Primeira Liga

Arouca scored 1.7 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Primeira Liga

Arouca conceded 1.1 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Primeira Liga

Failed to score in 2 of those 9.

Trend · Primeira Liga

Kept a clean sheet in 4 of those 9.

Arouca vs Estrela: prediction & preview

Portugal · Primeira Liga · Sun, 11 Oct 2026

Arouca meet Estrela in the Portugal, Primeira Liga on 11 October 2026 at 20:30 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–0.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Arouca at 2.14. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 45.3% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Arouca vs Estrela FAQs

4 questions

What time is the Arouca vs Estrela match?

Kickoff is 20:30 on 11 October 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

What are the safest picks for Arouca vs Estrela?

Arouca is the safest-priced 1X2 pick at 2.14. The margin-adjusted share is about 45.3%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over and under 2.5 prices are not stored for this match.

Do both teams score on this match?

A both-teams-to-score price is not stored for this match.