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Match dossier

Real Madrid vs Villarreal Predictions

Spain · La Liga · Sat, 10 Oct 2026 · 20:00 · Prediction, H2H, stats & betting tips

Spain · La LigaSat, 10 Oct 2026

Real Madrid

3rd in table · 27 pts

WWWWW

Sat, 10 Oct 202620:00

1 : 0

Full timeTip: 1 · 1.40

Villarreal

9th in table · 12 pts

LWWLL

Pre-match win probability

70.4%Real Madrid16.8%Draw12.8%Villarreal

Our prediction

1 · Real Madrid

Real Madrid vs Villarreal listed tip from the board.

Odds1.40
Confidence71.43%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Real Madrid 70.4%
  • Draw 16.8%
  • Villarreal 12.8%

Board tips

Betting Tips

  • Home Win1Odds 1.4071%Won
  • Both Team To ScoreGGOdds 1.4469%Lost
  • Win Either Half1Odds 1.2083%Won
  • corners ouOver 6.5Odds 1.6162%Lost
  • cards ouOver 3.5Odds 1.6262%Lost

Season statistics

La Liga · 9 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

Real MadridVillarreal
Goals scored (avg)
32.1
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
1.31.7
Wins
93
Played
1111

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Real Madrid8W 0D 1L in last 9
  • 1 NovRacing Santander0 – 3Real MadridW
  • 25 OctBarcelona1 – 2Real MadridW
  • 21 OctReal Madrid4 – 1RB LeipzigW
  • 18 OctReal Madrid4 – 1SevillaW
  • 14 OctAS Roma3 – 4Real MadridW
  • 20 SeptAtletico Madrid2 – 1Real MadridL
  • 15 SeptElche2 – 3Real MadridW
  • 12 SeptReal Madrid4 – 1Rayo VallecanoW
  • 8 SeptReal Madrid2 – 1InterW
Villarreal5W 1D 3L in last 9
  • 3 NovVillarreal0 – 6Paris Saint GermainL
  • 30 OctVillarreal0 – 1EspanyolL
  • 27 OctManacor0 – 5VillarrealW
  • 24 OctValencia1 – 2VillarrealW
  • 20 OctLiverpool4 – 3VillarrealL
  • 17 OctVillarreal0 – 0ElcheD
  • 13 OctVillarreal3 – 1NapoliW
  • 20 SeptVillarreal3 – 1LevanteW
  • 17 SeptMalaga1 – 3VillarrealW
H2H
Head to headReal Madrid 6W · 1D · Villarreal 2W · 4.1 goals a game
  • 24 JanVillarreal0 – 2Real Madrid
  • 4 OctReal Madrid3 – 1Villarreal
  • 15 MarVillarreal1 – 2Real Madrid
  • 5 OctReal Madrid2 – 0Villarreal
  • 19 MayVillarreal4 – 4Real Madrid
  • 17 DecReal Madrid4 – 1Villarreal
  • 8 AprReal Madrid2 – 3Villarreal
  • 19 JanVillarreal2 – 3Real Madrid
  • 7 JanVillarreal2 – 1Real Madrid

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

No over/under prices stored.

Match result

Real Madrid1.4
Draw5.85
Villarreal7.7

No BTTS prices stored.

No double chance prices stored.

Real Madrid

Chance70.4%
Odds1.4

Draw

Chance16.8%
Odds5.85

Villarreal

Chance12.8%
Odds7.7

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: 1 at 1.40

Real MadridVillarreal
Recent form60%40%
Attack59%41%
Defence57%43%
Goals model59%41%
Head-to-head72%28%
Overall85%15%

Trends

Trend · La Liga

Real Madrid scored 3 per game in the last 9.

Trend · La Liga

Real Madrid conceded 1.3 per game in the last 9.

Trend · La Liga

Kept a clean sheet in 1 of those 9.

Trend · La Liga

Over 2.5 goals in 9 of those 9.

Real Madrid vs Villarreal: prediction & preview

Spain · La Liga · Sat, 10 Oct 2026

Real Madrid meet Villarreal in the Spain, La Liga on 10 October 2026 at 20:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–0.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Real Madrid at 1.4. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 70.4% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Real Madrid vs Villarreal FAQs

4 questions

What time is the Real Madrid vs Villarreal match?

Kickoff is 20:00 on 10 October 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

What are the safest picks for Real Madrid vs Villarreal?

Real Madrid is the safest-priced 1X2 pick at 1.4. The margin-adjusted share is about 70.4%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over and under 2.5 prices are not stored for this match.

Do both teams score on this match?

A both-teams-to-score price is not stored for this match.