Match dossier

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Predictions

Spain · La Liga · Sat, 10 Oct 2026 · 15:15 · Prediction, H2H, stats & betting tips

Spain · La LigaSat, 10 Oct 2026

Alaves

11th in table · 12 pts

LDLDL

Sat, 10 Oct 202615:15

1 : 2

Full timeTip: X2 · 1.24

Atletico Madrid

2nd in table · 28 pts

WDWWL

Pre-match win probability

21.6%Alaves25.1%Draw53.3%Atletico Madrid

Our prediction

X2 · Alaves

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid listed tip from the board.

Odds1.24
Confidence80.65%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Alaves 21.6%
  • Draw 25.1%
  • Atletico Madrid 53.3%

Board tips

Betting Tips

  • Double ChanceX2Odds 1.2481%Won
  • Both Team To ScoreGGOdds 1.7457%Won
  • corners ouOver 6.5Odds 3.5728%Lost
  • cards ouOver 2.0Odds 3.1432%Lost

Season statistics

La Liga · 8 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

AlavesAtletico Madrid
Goals scored (avg)
1.31.8
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
1.80.4
Wins
39
Played
1111

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Alaves2W 2D 4L in last 8
  • 31 OctBarcelona6 – 1AlavesL
  • 23 OctAlaves1 – 1MalagaD
  • 18 OctCelta Vigo2 – 1AlavesL
  • 19 SeptAthletic Club0 – 0AlavesD
  • 15 SeptAlaves0 – 1ValenciaL
  • 12 SeptRacing Santander2 – 1AlavesL
  • 6 SeptAlaves5 – 2OsasunaW
  • 28 AugAlaves1 – 0VillarrealW
Atletico Madrid7W 1D 1L in last 9
  • 3 NovAtletico Madrid0 – 2Bayern MünchenL
  • 31 OctLevante0 – 2Atletico MadridW
  • 24 OctAtletico Madrid1 – 0Deportivo La CorunaW
  • 20 OctVfB Stuttgart1 – 1Atletico MadridD
  • 17 OctEspanyol0 – 1Atletico MadridW
  • 13 OctAtletico Madrid2 – 0Manchester UnitedW
  • 20 SeptAtletico Madrid2 – 1Real MadridW
  • 16 SeptAtletico Madrid4 – 0OsasunaW
  • 13 SeptReal Sociedad0 – 3Atletico MadridW
H2H
Head to headAlaves 2W · 2D · Atletico Madrid 5W · 2 goals a game
  • 18 JanAtletico Madrid1 – 0Alaves
  • 30 AugAlaves1 – 1Atletico Madrid
  • 3 MayAlaves0 – 0Atletico Madrid
  • 23 NovAtletico Madrid2 – 1Alaves
  • 21 AprAlaves2 – 0Atletico Madrid
  • 29 OctAtletico Madrid2 – 1Alaves
  • 2 AprAtletico Madrid4 – 1Alaves
  • 25 SeptAlaves1 – 0Atletico Madrid
  • 21 MarAtletico Madrid1 – 0Alaves

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

No over/under prices stored.

Match result

Alaves4.57
Draw3.92
Atletico Madrid1.85

No BTTS prices stored.

No double chance prices stored.

Alaves

Chance21.6%
Odds4.57

Draw

Chance25.1%
Odds3.92

Atletico Madrid

Chance53.3%
Odds1.85

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: X2 at 1.24

AlavesAtletico Madrid
Recent form27%73%
Attack42%58%
Defence32%68%
Goals model42%58%
Head-to-head33%67%
Overall29%71%

Trends

Trend · La Liga

Alaves scored 1.3 per game in the last 8.

Trend · La Liga

Alaves conceded 1.8 per game in the last 8.

Trend · La Liga

Failed to score in 2 of those 8.

Trend · La Liga

Kept a clean sheet in 2 of those 8.

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid: prediction & preview

Spain · La Liga · Sat, 10 Oct 2026

Alaves meet Atletico Madrid in the Spain, La Liga on 10 October 2026 at 15:15 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–2.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Atletico Madrid at 1.85. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 53.3% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid FAQs

4 questions

What time is the Alaves vs Atletico Madrid match?

Kickoff is 15:15 on 10 October 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

What are the safest picks for Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?

Atletico Madrid is the safest-priced 1X2 pick at 1.85. The margin-adjusted share is about 53.3%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over and under 2.5 prices are not stored for this match.

Do both teams score on this match?

A both-teams-to-score price is not stored for this match.