Match dossier

Nacional vs Alverca Predictions

Portugal · Primeira Liga · Sat, 12 Sept 2026 · 15:30 · Prediction, H2H, stats & betting tips

Portugal · Primeira LigaSat, 12 Sept 2026

Nacional

15th in table · 7 pts

LLLWL

Sat, 12 Sept 202615:30

1 : 3

Full timeTip: Over 6.5 · 3.62

Alverca

10th in table · 11 pts

WWLLL

Pre-match win probability

36.5%Nacional28.1%Draw35.4%Alverca

Our prediction

Over 6.5 · Nacional

Nacional vs Alverca listed tip from the board.

Odds3.62
Confidence27.62%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Nacional 36.5%
  • Draw 28.1%
  • Alverca 35.4%

Board tips

Betting Tips

  • corners ouOver 6.5Odds 3.6228%Lost
  • Win Either Half1Odds 1.8355%Won

Season statistics

Primeira Liga · 9 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

NacionalAlverca
Goals scored (avg)
0.81.1
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
1.71.4
Wins
23
Played
1010

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Nacional2W 0D 7L in last 9
  • 1 NovArouca1 – 0NacionalL
  • 25 OctNacional1 – 0SC BragaW
  • 17 OctSanjoanense1 – 0NacionalL
  • 11 OctRio Ave3 – 2NacionalL
  • 19 SeptNacional0 – 4FamalicaoL
  • 5 SeptSporting CP2 – 0NacionalL
  • 30 AugNacional2 – 3EstrelaL
  • 23 AugVitória SC1 – 0NacionalL
  • 16 AugNacional2 – 0EstorilW
Alverca2W 2D 5L in last 9
  • 2 NovBenfica1 – 0AlvercaL
  • 24 OctAlverca0 – 1AroucaL
  • 18 OctTondela2 – 0AlvercaL
  • 12 OctFamalicao1 – 4AlvercaW
  • 19 SeptAlverca1 – 0Rio AveW
  • 5 SeptAlverca1 – 2SC BragaL
  • 29 AugAlverca1 – 1Santa ClaraD
  • 22 AugSporting CP3 – 1AlvercaL
  • 15 AugAlverca2 – 2EstrelaD
H2H
Head to headNacional 1W · 0D · Alverca 1W · 1 goals a game
  • 18 AprNacional1 – 0Alverca
  • 7 DecAlverca1 – 0Nacional

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

No over/under prices stored.

Match result

Nacional2.62
Draw3.4
Alverca2.7

No BTTS prices stored.

No double chance prices stored.

Nacional

Chance36.5%
Odds2.62

Draw

Chance28.1%
Odds3.4

Alverca

Chance35.4%
Odds2.7

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Over 6.5 at 3.62

NacionalAlverca
Recent form43%57%
Attack42%58%
Defence45%55%
Goals model42%58%
Head-to-head50%50%
Overall51%49%

Trends

Trend · Primeira Liga

Nacional scored 0.8 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Primeira Liga

Nacional conceded 1.7 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Primeira Liga

Failed to score in 5 of those 9.

Trend · Primeira Liga

Kept a clean sheet in 2 of those 9.

Nacional vs Alverca: prediction & preview

Portugal · Primeira Liga · Sat, 12 Sept 2026

Nacional meet Alverca in the Portugal, Primeira Liga on 12 September 2026 at 15:30 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–3.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Nacional at 2.62. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 36.5% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Nacional vs Alverca FAQs

4 questions

What time is the Nacional vs Alverca match?

Kickoff is 15:30 on 12 September 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

What are the safest picks for Nacional vs Alverca?

Nacional is the safest-priced 1X2 pick at 2.62. The margin-adjusted share is about 36.5%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over and under 2.5 prices are not stored for this match.

Do both teams score on this match?

A both-teams-to-score price is not stored for this match.