Match dossier

Burnley vs Derby Predictions

England · Championship · Sat, 19 Sept 2026 · 15:00 · Prediction, H2H, stats & betting tips

England · ChampionshipSat, 19 Sept 2026

Burnley

22nd in table · 10 pts

DLLDD

Sat, 19 Sept 202615:00

1 : 1

Full timeTip: 1X · 1.21

Derby

23rd in table · 7 pts

LLDLL

Pre-match win probability

52%Burnley26.1%Draw21.9%Derby

Our prediction

1X · Burnley

Burnley vs Derby listed tip from the board.

Odds1.21
Confidence82.64%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Burnley 52%
  • Draw 26.1%
  • Derby 21.9%

Board tips

Betting Tips

  • Double Chance1XOdds 1.2183%Won
  • cards ouOver 3.5Odds 1.8056%Lost
  • Win Either Half1Odds 1.4469%Won
  • corners ouOver 6.5Odds 2.2245%Lost

Season statistics

Championship · 9 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

BurnleyDerby
Goals scored (avg)
1.30.6
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
1.72.3
Wins
11
Played
1414

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Burnley1W 4D 4L in last 9
  • 3 NovQPR1 – 1BurnleyD
  • 31 OctBurnley0 – 0PortsmouthD
  • 24 OctLincoln4 – 1BurnleyL
  • 16 OctBurnley1 – 2WolvesL
  • 13 OctBurnley2 – 2CharltonD
  • 10 OctWatford0 – 4BurnleyW
  • 12 SeptSwansea3 – 1BurnleyL
  • 8 SeptWrexham1 – 1BurnleyD
  • 5 SeptBurnley1 – 2Bristol CityL
Derby0W 2D 7L in last 9
  • 3 NovDerby0 – 4NorwichL
  • 31 OctMillwall4 – 1DerbyL
  • 24 OctSheffield Utd1 – 1DerbyD
  • 17 OctDerby0 – 1Stoke CityL
  • 14 OctQPR4 – 1DerbyL
  • 10 OctDerby1 – 1WrexhamD
  • 12 SeptDerby1 – 2BirminghamL
  • 9 SeptDerby0 – 1West BromL
  • 5 SeptWest Ham3 – 0DerbyL
H2H
Head to headBurnley 6W · 3D · Derby 0W · 2 goals a game
  • 26 AugBurnley2 – 1Derby
  • 8 AprDerby0 – 0Burnley
  • 10 DecBurnley0 – 0Derby
  • 25 JanBurnley4 – 1Derby
  • 21 SeptDerby0 – 0Burnley
  • 1 MarBurnley2 – 0Derby
  • 31 AugDerby0 – 3Burnley
  • 26 DecBurnley2 – 0Derby
  • 22 SeptDerby1 – 2Burnley

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

No over/under prices stored.

Match result

Burnley1.8
Draw3.58
Derby4.28

No BTTS prices stored.

No double chance prices stored.

Burnley

Chance52%
Odds1.8

Draw

Chance26.1%
Odds3.58

Derby

Chance21.9%
Odds4.28

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: 1X at 1.21

BurnleyDerby
Recent form78%22%
Attack68%32%
Defence65%35%
Goals model68%32%
Head-to-head83%17%
Overall70%30%

Trends

Trend · Championship

Burnley scored 1.3 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Championship

Burnley conceded 1.7 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Championship

Failed to score in 1 of those 9.

Trend · Championship

Kept a clean sheet in 2 of those 9.

Burnley vs Derby: prediction & preview

England · Championship · Sat, 19 Sept 2026

Burnley meet Derby in the England, Championship on 19 September 2026 at 15:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–1.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Burnley at 1.8. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 52% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Burnley vs Derby FAQs

4 questions

What time is the Burnley vs Derby match?

Kickoff is 15:00 on 19 September 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

What are the safest picks for Burnley vs Derby?

Burnley is the safest-priced 1X2 pick at 1.8. The margin-adjusted share is about 52%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over and under 2.5 prices are not stored for this match.

Do both teams score on this match?

A both-teams-to-score price is not stored for this match.