Match dossier

Türkiye vs Italy Predictions

World · UEFA Nations League · Mon, 28 Sept 2026 · 19:45 · Prediction, H2H, stats & betting tips

Türkiye

4th in table · 0 pts

LWLLL

Mon, 28 Sept 202619:45

1 : 4

Full timeTip: 2 · 2.59

Italy

2nd in table · 7 pts

WWLDW

Pre-match win probability

35.6%Türkiye26.5%Draw37.9%Italy

Our prediction

2 · Türkiye

Türkiye vs Italy listed tip from the board.

Odds2.59
Confidence38.61%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Türkiye 35.6%
  • Draw 26.5%
  • Italy 37.9%

Board tips

Betting Tips

  • Away Win2Odds 2.5939%Won
  • Over 2.5 GoalsOver 2.5Odds 1.7457%Won

Season statistics

UEFA Nations League · 9 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

TürkiyeItaly
Goals scored (avg)
1.21.3
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
1.41
Wins
02
Played
44

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Türkiye4W 0D 5L in last 9
  • 5 OctItaly3 – 1TürkiyeL
  • 2 OctBelgium3 – 0TürkiyeL
  • 25 SeptTürkiye0 – 1FranceL
  • 26 JunTürkiye3 – 2USAW
  • 20 JunTürkiye0 – 1ParaguayL
  • 14 JunAustralia2 – 0TürkiyeL
  • 6 JunVenezuela1 – 2TürkiyeW
  • 1 JunTürkiye4 – 0FYR MacedoniaW
  • 31 MarKosovo0 – 1TürkiyeW
Italy5W 2D 2L in last 9
  • 5 OctItaly3 – 1TürkiyeW
  • 2 OctFrance1 – 1ItalyD
  • 25 SeptItaly0 – 2BelgiumL
  • 7 JunGreece0 – 1ItalyW
  • 3 JunLuxembourg0 – 1ItalyW
  • 31 MarBosnia & Herzegovina1 – 1ItalyD
  • 26 MarItaly2 – 0Northern IrelandW
  • 16 NovItaly1 – 4NorwayL
  • 13 NovMoldova0 – 2ItalyW
H2H
Head to headTürkiye 0W · 1D · Italy 3W · 3 goals a game
  • 5 OctItaly3 – 1Türkiye
  • 4 JunItaly0 – 0Türkiye
  • 29 MarTürkiye2 – 3Italy
  • 11 JunTürkiye0 – 3Italy

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

No over/under prices stored.

Match result

Türkiye2.72
Draw3.66
Italy2.56

No BTTS prices stored.

No double chance prices stored.

Türkiye

Chance35.6%
Odds2.72

Draw

Chance26.5%
Odds3.66

Italy

Chance37.9%
Odds2.56

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: 2 at 2.59

TürkiyeItaly
Recent form41%59%
Attack48%52%
Defence44%56%
Goals model48%52%
Head-to-head13%87%
Overall48%52%

Trends

Trend · UEFA Nations League

Türkiye scored 1.2 per game in the last 9.

Trend · UEFA Nations League

Türkiye conceded 1.4 per game in the last 9.

Trend · UEFA Nations League

Failed to score in 4 of those 9.

Trend · UEFA Nations League

Kept a clean sheet in 2 of those 9.

Türkiye vs Italy: prediction & preview

World · UEFA Nations League · Mon, 28 Sept 2026

Türkiye meet Italy in the World, UEFA Nations League on 28 September 2026 at 19:45 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–4.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Italy at 2.56. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 37.9% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Türkiye vs Italy FAQs

4 questions

What time is the Türkiye vs Italy match?

Kickoff is 19:45 on 28 September 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

What are the safest picks for Türkiye vs Italy?

Italy is the safest-priced 1X2 pick at 2.56. The margin-adjusted share is about 37.9%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over and under 2.5 prices are not stored for this match.

Do both teams score on this match?

A both-teams-to-score price is not stored for this match.