Match dossier

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Predictions

Spain · La Liga · Sat, 12 Sept 2026 · 20:00 · Prediction, H2H, stats & betting tips

Spain · La LigaSat, 12 Sept 2026

Real Madrid

3rd in table · 27 pts

WWWWW

Sat, 12 Sept 202620:00

vs

Not startedTip: Over 0.5 · 1.17

Rayo Vallecano

12th in table · 12 pts

DDLWW

Pre-match win probability

85.4%Real Madrid10.2%Draw4.5%Rayo Vallecano

Our prediction

Over 0.5 · Real Madrid

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano listed tip from the board.

Odds1.17
Confidence85.47%
ResultPending
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Real Madrid 85.4%
  • Draw 10.2%
  • Rayo Vallecano 4.5%

Board tips

Betting Tips

  • freeOver 0.5Odds 1.1785%Pending
  • Over 2.5 GoalsOver 2.5Odds 1.2580%Pending
  • cards ouOver 3.5Odds 1.6262%Pending
  • 0.5 Goals HTOver 0.5Odds 1.1785%Pending
  • corners ouOver 6.5Odds 2.1247%Pending

Season statistics

La Liga · 8 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

Real MadridRayo Vallecano
Goals scored (avg)
2.81.9
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
1.31.9
Wins
93
Played
1110

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Real Madrid7W 0D 1L in last 8
  • 1 NovRacing Santander0 – 3Real MadridW
  • 25 OctBarcelona1 – 2Real MadridW
  • 21 OctReal Madrid4 – 1RB LeipzigW
  • 18 OctReal Madrid4 – 1SevillaW
  • 14 OctAS Roma3 – 4Real MadridW
  • 10 OctReal Madrid1 – 0VillarrealW
  • 20 SeptAtletico Madrid2 – 1Real MadridL
  • 15 SeptElche2 – 3Real MadridW
Rayo Vallecano4W 2D 2L in last 8
  • 31 OctRayo Vallecano3 – 0Celta VigoW
  • 27 OctRecreativo Huelva2 – 3Rayo VallecanoW
  • 24 OctRayo Vallecano0 – 3ElcheL
  • 19 OctGetafe1 – 1Rayo VallecanoD
  • 19 SeptOsasuna1 – 1Rayo VallecanoD
  • 15 SeptRayo Vallecano2 – 1EspanyolW
  • 5 SeptRayo Vallecano3 – 2Racing SantanderW
  • 31 AugBarcelona5 – 2Rayo VallecanoL
H2H
Head to headReal Madrid 4W · 4D · Rayo Vallecano 1W · 2.6 goals a game
  • 1 FebReal Madrid2 – 1Rayo Vallecano
  • 9 NovRayo Vallecano0 – 0Real Madrid
  • 9 MarReal Madrid2 – 1Rayo Vallecano
  • 14 DecRayo Vallecano3 – 3Real Madrid
  • 18 FebRayo Vallecano1 – 1Real Madrid
  • 5 NovReal Madrid0 – 0Rayo Vallecano
  • 24 MayReal Madrid2 – 1Rayo Vallecano
  • 7 NovRayo Vallecano3 – 2Real Madrid
  • 26 FebRayo Vallecano0 – 1Real Madrid

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

No over/under prices stored.

Match result

Real Madrid1.15
Draw9.65
Rayo Vallecano22

No BTTS prices stored.

No double chance prices stored.

Real Madrid

Chance85.4%
Odds1.15

Draw

Chance10.2%
Odds9.65

Rayo Vallecano

Chance4.5%
Odds22

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Over 0.5 at 1.17

Real MadridRayo Vallecano
Recent form60%40%
Attack60%40%
Defence61%39%
Goals model60%40%
Head-to-head67%33%
Overall95%5%

Trends

Trend · La Liga

Real Madrid scored 2.8 per game in the last 8.

Trend · La Liga

Real Madrid conceded 1.3 per game in the last 8.

Trend · La Liga

Kept a clean sheet in 2 of those 8.

Trend · La Liga

Over 2.5 goals in 7 of those 8.

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano: prediction & preview

Spain · La Liga · Sat, 12 Sept 2026

Real Madrid meet Rayo Vallecano in the Spain, La Liga on 12 September 2026 at 20:00 (Africa/Lagos). The numbers below are pre-match prices and team rates. They describe the match. They do not promise a result.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Real Madrid at 1.15. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 85.4% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano FAQs

4 questions

What time is the Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano match?

Kickoff is 20:00 on 12 September 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

What are the safest picks for Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?

Real Madrid is the safest-priced 1X2 pick at 1.15. The margin-adjusted share is about 85.4%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over and under 2.5 prices are not stored for this match.

Do both teams score on this match?

A both-teams-to-score price is not stored for this match.