Match dossier

Portugal vs Wales Predictions

World · UEFA Nations League · Thu, 24 Sept 2026 · 19:45 · Prediction, H2H, stats & betting tips

Portugal

1st in table · 12 pts

WLWWW

Thu, 24 Sept 202619:45

1 : 0

Full timeTip: 1 · 1.23

Wales

3rd in table · 3 pts

DLLWL

Pre-match win probability

78.4%Portugal14.9%Draw6.7%Wales

Our prediction

1 · Portugal

Portugal vs Wales listed tip from the board.

Odds1.23
Confidence81.30%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Portugal 78.4%
  • Draw 14.9%
  • Wales 6.7%

Board tips

Betting Tips

  • Home Win1Odds 1.2381%Won
  • Over 2.5 GoalsOver 2.5Odds 1.4868%Lost

Season statistics

UEFA Nations League · 9 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

PortugalWales
Goals scored (avg)
21.6
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
0.91.1
Wins
41
Played
44

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Portugal6W 2D 1L in last 9
  • 4 OctPortugal2 – 1NorwayW
  • 1 OctDenmark2 – 4PortugalW
  • 27 SeptNorway1 – 2PortugalW
  • 6 JulPortugal0 – 1SpainL
  • 3 JulPortugal2 – 1CroatiaW
  • 28 JunColombia0 – 0PortugalD
  • 23 JunPortugal5 – 0UzbekistanW
  • 17 JunPortugal1 – 1Congo DRD
  • 10 JunPortugal2 – 1NigeriaW
Wales3W 3D 3L in last 9
  • 4 OctWales0 – 1DenmarkL
  • 1 OctWales2 – 1NorwayW
  • 27 SeptDenmark2 – 0WalesL
  • 6 JunRomania2 – 1WalesL
  • 2 JunWales1 – 1GhanaD
  • 31 MarWales1 – 1Northern IrelandD
  • 26 MarWales1 – 1Bosnia & HerzegovinaD
  • 18 NovWales7 – 1FYR MacedoniaW
  • 15 NovLiechtenstein0 – 1WalesW
H2H
Head to headPortugal 1W · 0D · Wales 0W · 2 goals a game
  • 6 JulPortugal2 – 0Wales

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

No over/under prices stored.

Match result

Portugal1.24
Draw6.52
Wales14.4

No BTTS prices stored.

No double chance prices stored.

Portugal

Chance78.4%
Odds1.24

Draw

Chance14.9%
Odds6.52

Wales

Chance6.7%
Odds14.4

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: 1 at 1.23

PortugalWales
Recent form63%37%
Attack56%44%
Defence53%47%
Goals model56%44%
Head-to-head100%0%
Overall92%8%

Trends

Trend · UEFA Nations League

Portugal scored 2 per game in the last 9.

Trend · UEFA Nations League

Portugal conceded 0.9 per game in the last 9.

Trend · UEFA Nations League

Failed to score in 2 of those 9.

Trend · UEFA Nations League

Kept a clean sheet in 2 of those 9.

Portugal vs Wales: prediction & preview

World · UEFA Nations League · Thu, 24 Sept 2026

Portugal meet Wales in the World, UEFA Nations League on 24 September 2026 at 19:45 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–0.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Portugal at 1.24. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 78.4% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Portugal vs Wales FAQs

4 questions

What time is the Portugal vs Wales match?

Kickoff is 19:45 on 24 September 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

What are the safest picks for Portugal vs Wales?

Portugal is the safest-priced 1X2 pick at 1.24. The margin-adjusted share is about 78.4%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over and under 2.5 prices are not stored for this match.

Do both teams score on this match?

A both-teams-to-score price is not stored for this match.