Match dossier

AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II Predictions

Netherlands · Eredivisie · Fri, 11 Sept 2026 · 19:00 · Prediction, H2H, stats & betting tips

Netherlands · EredivisieFri, 11 Sept 2026

AZ Alkmaar

5th in table · 20 pts

WDWLL

Fri, 11 Sept 202619:00

1 : 1

Full timeTip: Over 2.5 · 1.20

Willem II

18th in table · 2 pts

LLLWL

Pre-match win probability

84.3%AZ Alkmaar9.9%Draw5.8%Willem II

Our prediction

Over 2.5 · AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II listed tip from the board.

Odds1.20
Confidence83.33%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • AZ Alkmaar 84.3%
  • Draw 9.9%
  • Willem II 5.8%

Board tips

Betting Tips

  • Over 2.5 GoalsOver 2.5Odds 1.2083%Lost
  • corners ouOver 6.5Odds 1.4469%Lost
  • Single BetOver 2.5Odds 1.2083%Lost

Season statistics

Eredivisie · 9 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

AZ AlkmaarWillem II
Goals scored (avg)
1.31.2
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
1.23.7
Wins
60
Played
1111

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

AZ Alkmaar4W 1D 4L in last 9
  • 31 OctAjax1 – 0AZ AlkmaarL
  • 25 OctAZ Alkmaar0 – 2TwenteL
  • 22 OctArarat-Armenia0 – 4AZ AlkmaarW
  • 18 OctCambuur2 – 2AZ AlkmaarD
  • 15 OctAZ Alkmaar2 – 1Hapoel Beer ShevaW
  • 10 OctFeyenoord2 – 0AZ AlkmaarL
  • 20 SeptAZ Alkmaar1 – 0TelstarW
  • 16 SeptSunderland1 – 0AZ AlkmaarL
  • 6 SeptHeerenveen2 – 3AZ AlkmaarW
Willem II1W 1D 7L in last 9
  • 31 OctPSV Eindhoven7 – 0Willem IIL
  • 27 OctHelmond Sport3 – 4Willem IIW
  • 24 OctWillem II1 – 6CambuurL
  • 17 OctSparta Rotterdam3 – 2Willem IIL
  • 11 OctUtrecht3 – 1Willem IIL
  • 19 SeptWillem II0 – 1Fortuna SittardL
  • 15 SeptAjax5 – 1Willem IIL
  • 5 SeptWillem II0 – 3ExcelsiorL
  • 30 AugWillem II2 – 2HeerenveenD
H2H
Head to headAZ Alkmaar 4W · 3D · Willem II 2W · 3.7 goals a game
  • 2 FebWillem II0 – 2AZ Alkmaar
  • 10 NovAZ Alkmaar1 – 2Willem II
  • 20 MarWillem II2 – 2AZ Alkmaar
  • 18 DecAZ Alkmaar4 – 1Willem II
  • 3 AprWillem II0 – 1AZ Alkmaar
  • 20 DecAZ Alkmaar5 – 3Willem II
  • 18 JanAZ Alkmaar1 – 3Willem II
  • 6 OctWillem II1 – 1AZ Alkmaar
  • 28 FebWillem II2 – 2AZ Alkmaar

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

No over/under prices stored.

Match result

AZ Alkmaar1.14
Draw9.7
Willem II16.5

No BTTS prices stored.

No double chance prices stored.

AZ Alkmaar

Chance84.3%
Odds1.14

Draw

Chance9.9%
Odds9.7

Willem II

Chance5.8%
Odds16.5

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: Over 2.5 at 1.20

AZ AlkmaarWillem II
Recent form76%24%
Attack52%48%
Defence95%5%
Goals model52%48%
Head-to-head61%39%
Overall94%6%

Trends

Trend · Eredivisie

AZ Alkmaar scored 1.3 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Eredivisie

AZ Alkmaar conceded 1.2 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Eredivisie

Failed to score in 4 of those 9.

Trend · Eredivisie

Kept a clean sheet in 2 of those 9.

AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II: prediction & preview

Netherlands · Eredivisie · Fri, 11 Sept 2026

AZ Alkmaar meet Willem II in the Netherlands, Eredivisie on 11 September 2026 at 19:00 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–1.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is AZ Alkmaar at 1.14. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 84.3% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II FAQs

4 questions

What time is the AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II match?

Kickoff is 19:00 on 11 September 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

What are the safest picks for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?

AZ Alkmaar is the safest-priced 1X2 pick at 1.14. The margin-adjusted share is about 84.3%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over and under 2.5 prices are not stored for this match.

Do both teams score on this match?

A both-teams-to-score price is not stored for this match.