Match dossier

Arouca vs Nacional Predictions

Portugal · Primeira Liga · Sun, 1 Nov 2026 · 16:30 · Prediction, H2H, stats & betting tips

Arouca

5th in table · 20 pts

LDWWW

Sun, 1 Nov 202616:30

1 : 0

Full timeTip: 1 · 1.40

Nacional

15th in table · 7 pts

LLLLW

Pre-match win probability

53.5%Arouca24.8%Draw21.6%Nacional

Our prediction

1 · Arouca

Arouca vs Nacional listed tip from the board.

Odds1.40
Confidence71.43%
ResultGraded
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Arouca 53.5%
  • Draw 24.8%
  • Nacional 21.6%

Board tips

Betting Tips

  • Win Either Half1Odds 1.4071%Won
  • corners ouOver 6.5Odds 2.5839%Lost

Season statistics

Primeira Liga · 9 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

AroucaNacional
Goals scored (avg)
1.70.9
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
1.11.9
Wins
62
Played
1010

Recent form

Last matches · newest first

Arouca5W 2D 2L in last 9
  • 24 OctAlverca0 – 1AroucaW
  • 18 OctCF Os Belenenses3 – 4AroucaW
  • 11 OctArouca1 – 0EstrelaW
  • 19 SeptSporting CP2 – 2AroucaD
  • 13 SeptArouca1 – 2Santa ClaraL
  • 7 SeptEstoril0 – 0AroucaD
  • 29 AugArouca2 – 1MaritimoW
  • 23 AugFC Porto2 – 0AroucaL
  • 16 AugArouca4 – 0MoreirenseW
Nacional2W 0D 7L in last 9
  • 25 OctNacional1 – 0SC BragaW
  • 17 OctSanjoanense1 – 0NacionalL
  • 11 OctRio Ave3 – 2NacionalL
  • 19 SeptNacional0 – 4FamalicaoL
  • 12 SeptNacional1 – 3AlvercaL
  • 5 SeptSporting CP2 – 0NacionalL
  • 30 AugNacional2 – 3EstrelaL
  • 23 AugVitória SC1 – 0NacionalL
  • 16 AugNacional2 – 0EstorilW
H2H
Head to headArouca 6W · 2D · Nacional 1W · 2.4 goals a game
  • 21 FebArouca3 – 0Nacional
  • 20 SeptNacional1 – 2Arouca
  • 1 FebNacional1 – 2Arouca
  • 25 AugArouca1 – 0Nacional
  • 6 MayArouca0 – 1Nacional
  • 22 DecNacional2 – 2Arouca
  • 28 JanNacional1 – 1Arouca
  • 21 AugArouca2 – 0Nacional
  • 1 MayArouca3 – 0Nacional

Betting markets

Bookmaker prices with margin removed

No over/under prices stored.

Match result

Arouca1.81
Draw3.9
Nacional4.48

No BTTS prices stored.

No double chance prices stored.

Arouca

Chance53.5%
Odds1.81

Draw

Chance24.8%
Odds3.9

Nacional

Chance21.6%
Odds4.48

No half-time prices stored.

No corner prices stored.

Model comparison

Our pick: 1 at 1.40

AroucaNacional
Recent form74%26%
Attack65%35%
Defence63%37%
Goals model65%35%
Head-to-head78%22%
Overall71%29%

Trends

Trend · Primeira Liga

Arouca scored 1.7 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Primeira Liga

Arouca conceded 1.1 per game in the last 9.

Trend · Primeira Liga

Failed to score in 2 of those 9.

Trend · Primeira Liga

Kept a clean sheet in 4 of those 9.

Arouca vs Nacional: prediction & preview

Portugal · Primeira Liga · Sun, 1 Nov 2026

Arouca meet Nacional in the Portugal, Primeira Liga on 1 November 2026 at 16:30 (Africa/Lagos). The recorded score is 1–0.

On the 1X2 market the shortest price is Arouca at 1.81. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, that outcome carries about 53.5% of the implied chance, with the other two outcomes sharing the rest. A short price means the market rates that side more likely. It is not a certainty, and the margin means the three raw probabilities add up to more than 100% before they are scaled.

Season points-per-game rates were not stored on this fixture yet. The odds chart still shows how the 1X2, goals, and both-teams markets are priced.

Arouca vs Nacional FAQs

4 questions

What time is the Arouca vs Nacional match?

Kickoff is 16:30 on 1 November 2026, shown in Africa/Lagos.

What are the safest picks for Arouca vs Nacional?

Arouca is the safest-priced 1X2 pick at 1.81. The margin-adjusted share is about 53.5%.

What are the over and under 2.5 prices?

Over and under 2.5 prices are not stored for this match.

Do both teams score on this match?

A both-teams-to-score price is not stored for this match.